Hypothetical NBA Trades that would Break the League this Offseason
As we continue to look towards the end of the 2022-23 NBA regular season and into the 2023 offseason, the association has more parity than it has had since the mid 2000’s. Both conferences’ playoff races are very tight, especially in the West, with the 4 seed and 12 seed only separated by 4 games as of March 16. With that in mind, you can expect many of these competing teams to look to make drastic moves in order to break away from the pack and assert themselves in a position to try to have a more secure playoff spot for next season. On top of that, NBA superstars have never been more likely to be traded as we’ve seen in the past year. Whether it’s because a star becomes disgruntled, or because an organization wants to head into a different direction, I expect a lot of major player movement to occur this offseason, so here are a few moves that would shift the landscape of the league.
I want to emphasize that none of these specific theoretical trades have much real-life momentum behind them, and thus are unlikely to realistically happen as things currently stand. That being said, I do believe the hypothetical scenarios I present surrounding the trades are definitely realistic possibilities depending on how the rest of the season plays out. Without further ado, let’s get to the list.
1. Trae Young teams up with Nikola Jokic in Denver
Rumors of turmoil have clouded over the Atlanta Hawks throughout the entire 2022-23 season, and it culminated with the firing of head coach Nate McMillan and hiring of Quin Snyder. Throughout all of that, Trae Young has continued to put up Trae Young numbers, however he still hasn’t quite looked the same, and he wasn’t named an all-star this year as a result. Additionally, his future in Atlanta has been questioned, with rumors that he was trying to request a trade during the whole Nate McMillan debacle.
The Hawks as a team have been living around the .500 mark all season, and don’t look like anything more than a first-round exit in the current state of the East despite making a blockbuster trade for Dejounte Murray before the season. As a result of all of this, it wouldn’t surprise me if Trae Young follows through with a trade request, or if Atlanta themselves want to re-tool their roster.
Meanwhile in Denver, things have been going really well with the Nuggets on their way to locking up the #1 seed in the Western Conference, and Nikola Jokic having an even greater season after winning back-to-back MVP awards. However, the postseason success hasn’t been there for the Nuggets, as they’ve failed to win a game past the first round in each of the last two seasons. While some blame Jokic for these poor results in the playoffs, many including myself point to his supporting cast falling short, whether it be because of injuries or a lack of a true secondary star next to the Joker. If their playoff shortcomings continue to happen this year after such a promising regular season and a 3rd Jokic MVP, I can see a world where the Denver front office feels pressure to make a move to give Jokic that sidekick he could benefit from.
As far as what this trade looks like, the basic structure of it would be Trae Young for Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. In Murray, the Nuggets would be losing Jokic’s best teammate who has undoubtedly shined at times, most notably in the 2020 NBA bubble. However, Young is surely an upgrade and raises the ceiling of the team.
I like this deal for the Hawks too, who replace Young with Murray, someone who I think fits a little better with Dejounte Murray, as it allows Dejounte to handle the ball more and be the primary playmaker he’s designed to be in an offense (sharing the same last name in the backcourt is a cool plus too). Michael Porter Jr. also provides much needed production at the SF position for the Hawks, and will have more freedom to be the shot jacker he is without needing to run the offense through Jokic anymore. Denver would surely need to add draft compensation in this deal, the issue with that being that Denver doesn’t have a tradeable first round pick until 2029. That pick plus pick swaps in 2024, 2026, and 2028 will need to be included in the deal heading towards Atlanta, while Atlanta will need to throw Bogdan Bogdanovic into the deal to make salaries match.
Final Trade
Nuggets acquire:
G Trae Young
G Bogdan Bogdanovic
Hawks acquire:
G Jamal Murray
F Michael Porter Jr.
2029 Denver 1st Round Pick
Rights to swap 1st round picks with Denver in 2024, 2026, and 2028
2. Zach Lavine to the Sacramento Kings
The Kings have been the NBA’s sweethearts this season, going on a surprise winning year and currently sitting at #2 in the Western Conference. They have been putting up points in bunches, averaging 120.9 ppg, the most in the NBA. Despite this, no one is really giving them any realistic chances at winning a title this season, as they’re still a fairly young team and Domantas Sabonis and De’Aaron Fox aren’t necessarily the superstar caliber of players you would expect to lead a team to championship in this day in age.
Meanwhile in Chicago, the Bulls are looking like a directionless team, with aging stars leading the way for a team that’s floating in the play-in/end of lottery area in the standings. No doubt this is the purgatory of the league no one wants to be apart of, so the Bulls could be looking at blowing it up to start a rebuild. At the forefront of that potential blow up is Zach Lavine, another scoring machine that, similarly to Trae Young, hasn’t quite looked himself this season, but is still only 28 years old and under team control until the end of the 2026 season.
The Bulls could surely get a large haul for him to jump start their rebuild, and have even shopped him already at the deadline with rumors of talks between them and the Knicks. What better spot is there for Lavine to end up than with the Sacramento Kings, a team that Lavine already signed an offer sheet with in 2018 before it was matched by Chicago. Lavine could slot right next to Fox to become the fastest, most athletic scoring backcourt in the league and could be the final piece that solidifies them as championship contenders.
As far as what the Bulls are looking at in return, you’d have to think multiple unprotected first round picks and pick swaps would be the starting point based on the precedent set in the Gobert, Mitchell, and Durant trades. After that the Kings have young pieces Keegan Murray and Davion Mitchell that could be of interest to the Bulls, as well as a guy like Harrison Barnes for salary filler. I could see Kevin Huerter, who’s having a fantastic season, also be included in this trade. Bulls’ guard Alex Caruso is a solid player still under contract for 2 more years that will have to go the way of Sacramento in order to match salary, and he can provide the Kings with much needed depth they’ll be losing in this trade, especially on the defensive end.
Final Trade
Kings acquire:
G Zach Lavine
G Alex Caruso
Bulls acquire:
G Davion Mitchell
G Kevin Huerter
F Keegan Murray
F Harrison Barnes
2026 and 2028 Sacramento 1st Round Picks
Rights to swap 1st round picks with Sacramento in 2025, 2027, and 2029
3. The Knicks finally get their superstar, Jimmy Butler
The Knicks have been a team rumored to acquire a superstar during the offseason for years now. Whether it’s been Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, Anthony Davis, or Donovan Mitchell, the Big Apple has continued to miss out on the big names that were heavily rumored to them. Now, the Knicks finally pull the trigger to acquire a proven superstar to lead them after having a successful season in 2022-23. Julius Randle and newly signed Jalen Brunson have been playing at an all-star caliber level, while guys like Immanuel Quickley and Quentin Grimes have also emerged to be very effective supplemental scorers. This is a team that’s 11 games over .500 and in serious position to make some noise in the playoffs, but they’re likely still one big piece away from becoming NBA title contenders.
That piece could be Jimmy Butler. The 33-year-old is playing for a Heat team that may have missed their window to win a championship after making the NBA Finals in 2020, and Conference Finals in 2022. The Heat are still in playoff position at #7 in the East, but they’re one of the oldest teams in the league, and have some of the worst contracts, as well. If they haven’t won already, they surely aren’t going to win any time in the near future, so I think Miami should 100% look to part ways with players like Jimmy Butler and Kyle Lowry, and opt to focus on building around their young and talented duo of Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro.
RJ Barrett would be the headliner heading to Miami in this deal. The 2019 3rd overall pick signed a 4 year/$107 million extension in the summer, but hasn’t developed into the all-star many in New York thought he could be. Barrett has been inconsistent, especially offensively where his game is in need of some serious developing. Perhaps this growth can occur in Miami, where he can progress alongside the aforementioned Adebayo and Herro, in a system led by Erik Spoelstra that suits him better than Tom Thibodeau’s system in New York, in my opinion.
The Knicks would also send discontent big man Mitchell Robinson to Miami, who is still only 24-years-old and can be a solid piece for the Heat down the road. New York would also be liable to taking on Duncan Robinson’s bad contract in order to sweeten the deal for Miami, who would also receive Derrick Rose from New York to make the money match. Finally, New York throws in a 2023 1st round pick via Dallas, a 2025 1st round pick, and a 2027 1st round pick.
Final Trade
Knicks acquire:
F Jimmy Butler
G/F Duncan Robinson
Heat acquire:
G/F RJ Barrett
C Mitchell Robinson
G Derrick Rose
2023 1st round pick (top-10 protected, via Dallas), 2025 first round pick, 2027 first round pick
4. Timberwolves and Raptors swap KAT and Siakam
The Timberwolves and Raptors are two teams considered to be underachieving for their standards, but both are in fine position to contend for years to come. Both have well-built rosters with promising young talent and solid depth pieces, highlighted by Minnesota’s Anthony Edwards and Toronto’s Scottie Barnes.
However, even though both teams have high quality players, I don’t think the correct fit is there for either team. Toronto carries several lengthy forwards deserving of minutes, forcing 6’8” Pascal Siakam to move from his natural position at power forward to play center. In Minnesota, Rudy Gobert was acquired in a big offseason trade to man the paint for the T-Wolves, forcing Karl Anthony-Towns to move from his natural position at center to play power forward (although he’s been injured for a large portion of the season). I believe these positional changes have hampered both players and teams, as the Raptors have underachieved in the defense and rebounding departments, and we’ve seen the Timberwolves have no answer defensively against smaller lineups in the little time that KAT has played the 4 alongside Gobert.
I can see a straight up swap of these two players being beneficial for both teams, allowing Siakam and KAT to go back to playing their normal positions in hopes of improving the fit of each team’s rosters, and in turn improve each team’s place in the standings for next season. I would say both players are at an even skill level at their respective stages of their careers, and KAT is only slightly younger than Siakam, which rules out any age difference affecting trade compensation. The main difference between the two players is that Siakam will be a free agent at the end of the 2023-24 season, while KAT is under contract through at least 2027. This means I would expect Minnesota to receive some kind of draft compensation in this deal, however it’s also worth noting that KAT is owed very big money throughout his contract, which Toronto could argue is a risk they’re taking off Minnesota’s shoulders due to his recent injury history and relative talent level compared to other supermax contract players in the league.
Final Trade
Raptors acquire:
C Karl Anthony-Towns
Timberwolves acquire:
F/C Pascal Siakam
2026 Toronto 1st round pick
Rights to swap 1st round pick with Toronto in 2028
5. Damian Lillard reluctantly departs Portland; joins Celtics
Okay, now we get to the part of the list where things begin to get a little out of hand. I don’t foresee Damian Lillard ever leaving Portland, either on his own volition or via trade. However, the Portland Trail Blazers continue to find themselves in no man’s land, as they have a roster built to win now, but will be a play-in team at best this year. Thus, it’s not completely unreasonable for the Portland front office to want to bring in a haul for Lillard, who’s not getting younger anytime soon. So yes, even though Dame feels like someone who is a Trail Blazer for life, it wouldn’t surprise me in the current state of the NBA to see a team pry him away from the Pacific Northwest to improve their chances of hoisting the Larry O’Brien trophy.
Scanning the league for a suitor for Dame, there isn’t really a clear one. Competing teams that would want to take on Lillard either don’t have enough salary filler, or don’t have young talent that the Blazers would see as a good enough return for someone as important to the franchise as Dame is. Thus, my approach was to imagine a scenario where the Trail Blazers would work with Lillard to get him to a destination he wants to go to, in exchange for his unbridled loyalty to the Trail Blazers organization. In this situation, I can see Lillard requesting to join the Celtics, one of the best teams in the NBA who will be among the favorites to win a ring for years to come.
While the Celtics don’t necessarily have a need for Dame, as they currently have a very soundly constructed roster built by Brad Stevens, there could be a world where the Celtics underachieve in the playoffs this year and look to make a splash to push them over the edge as the clear frontrunner in the NBA. Additionally, the salaries of Derrick White, Marcus Smart, and Malcolm Brogdon are plentiful enough to match the $45 million Damian Lillard is set to make in 2023-24. The Blazers will also acquire Robert Williams III as the centerpiece in this trade, a young center on a fantastic contract that can be a cornerstone for the future of the team. I have the Celtics taking back center Jusuf Nurkic in this deal for salary purposes, a clear downgrade both in the present and future from Williams, but Jusuf is still a serviceable player that can contribute to a winning team. The Celtics would also have to trade any extra draft capital the Trail Blazers would want, headlined by a 2025 1st rounder.
This is a high price to pay, but it would be worth it to secure a trio of Damian Lillard, Jayson Tatum, and Jaylen Brown, a three-headed monster that would almost guarantee at least one championship. Payton Pritchard can also finally fill in and get the meaningful guard minutes he thinks he deserves as a result of the departure of 3 guards. Seeing Dame finally win a ring in a jersey other than a Trail Blazers’ one would certainly be weird, but would shut the mouths of those who have scrutinized him for years for his unwillingness to leave Portland for greener pastures.
Final Trade
Celtics acquire:
G Damian Lillard
C Jusuf Nurkic
Trail Blazers acquire:
C Robert Williams III
G Marcus Smart
G Derrick White
G Malcolm Brogdon
Draft capital from Boston, including 2025 1st round pick
6. LeBron James gets Traded???
That last trade was wild enough, let’s might as well have fun now. It’s no secret the Lakers have been a huge mess as of late. They definitely haven’t lived anywhere close up to the expectations the media has placed on them as a big market team with LeBron James and Anthony Davis that won a championship in 2020. They made good moves at the deadline to put them in position to reach the playoffs, but with LeBron James struggling with injury, their hopes of actually winning a title in a loaded Western Conference at some point in the rest of LeBron’s career seems slim.
Although incredibly unlikely, let’s imagine a scenario where James and the Lakers mutually agree to part ways in order to give LeBron a better chance to win one more ring before retirement, and allow the Lakers to re-tool their roster for the future around AD.
In such a scenario, how about the Philadelphia 76ers emerging as the best suitors for LeBron? They have the contract of Tobias Harris to match LeBron’s, with Harris still being a very productive player that can contribute to winning basketball in LA. The 76ers also have Tyrese Maxey as a significantly intriguing piece to give to the Lakers. The 22-year-old guard is a rising star in the league, averaging about 20 points a game this season, and would probably be considered untouchable by Philadelphia in most trade negotiations unless it was for a star like LeBron. Maxey would fit perfectly with the Lakers and grow even more than he can in Philly, asserting himself as the lead guard and sidekick to Anthony Davis for years to come.
For Philly, they receive arguably the greatest player of all-time to finish his career. The King will form a big 3 alongside Joel Embiid and James Harden, arguably the best big 3 out of the many he’s been apart of. The Sixers are flirting with the Bucks, Celtics, and Nuggets for the title of best team in the league, and this trade would guarantee them to take over that spot.
Of course, this trade is the most unrealistic of them all, and it becomes even more unrealistic considering that Philly would surely need to give up significant draft capital based on what the Suns had to give up for Kevin Durant. The problem of course is that the 76ers don’t have any tradeable draft capital anymore because they gave it all to the Nets in the James Harden trade. Oh well, this trade is already ridiculous enough that we can assume LeGM worked his magic and strongarmed Jeanie Buss, Rob Pelinka, and Adam Silver into forcing this trade to go through.
Final Trade
76ers acquire:
F LeBron James
Lakers acquire:
F Tobias Harris
G Tyrese Maxey
